US Dollar Forecast: Bullish on DXY and Bearish on EUR/USD as Fed Rate Bets Shift

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Daily EUR/USD

The dollar’s strength has pressured the euro, pushing it to a 4-1/2-month low of $1.0679. Investor concerns are intensifying around potential U.S. tariffs on the eurozone, which could impact economic growth in the region. On Friday, reports emerged that President-elect Donald Trump might tap trade hawk Robert Lighthizer to head U.S. trade policy, sparking worries over more aggressive tariff actions. The euro’s sensitivity to these potential trade measures underscores its current vulnerability against the strengthening dollar.

Is Market Sentiment Boosting the Dollar’s Outlook?

Investor sentiment is increasingly influenced by Trump’s anticipated fiscal policies, which may boost inflation and bond yields while restricting the Fed’s flexibility on rate cuts. ING’s forex head, Chris Turner, suggests that Trump’s election could strengthen U.S. consumer and business confidence, even as it dampens sentiment abroad. This optimism has kept the dollar near its post-election highs against major currencies.

Market Forecast: Will the Dollar’s Rally Continue?

With minimal resistance and supportive economic indicators, the U.S. Dollar Index is positioned for potential gains, with a bullish outlook as it nears the 106.130 level. However, the upcoming U.S. inflation data and Fed policy remarks could play pivotal roles in either extending or capping this momentum. Traders should prepare for volatility as economic reports and trade policy developments emerge in the coming weeks.