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Goldman cuts its S&P target for the second time this month. (0:15) Newsmax soars on first trading day. (1:29) CoreWeave continues to struggle after IPO. (1:55)
This is an abridged transcript of the podcast:
Our top story so far, Goldman Sachs has cut its S&P 500 (SP500) target for the second time this month as its economists raised their projection of a U.S. recession to 35%.
Strategist David Kostin says: “Higher tariffs, weaker economic growth, and greater inflation than we previously assumed” prompted Goldman to cut its year-end view to 5,900 from 6,200 for the benchmark.
“If the growth outlook and investor confidence deteriorate even further, valuations could decline much more than we forecast,” Kostin said.
Economists at Goldman now see the average U.S. tariff rate rising to a 15% average this year from a previous 10% view.
Chief Economist Jan Hatzius says: “Almost the entire revision reflects a more aggressive assumption for ‘reciprocal’ tariffs.”
Goldman bumped up its 12-month recession probability to 35% from 20% and sliced down its 2025 GDP projection to 1% from 1.5% on a Q4 basis.
“The upgrade from our previous 20% (recession) estimate reflects our lower growth baseline, the sharp recent deterioration in household and business confidence, and statements from White House officials indicating greater willingness to tolerate near-term economic weakness in pursuit of their policies,” Hatzius said.
Among active stocks, conservative-focused news network Newsmax (NMAX) opened for trading on its first day as a public stock at $14, above its $10 initial public offering price, and rose from there to a 66% gain before a volatility halt just before 11 a.m. ET.
That halt was quickly followed by another and another. Shares remain volatile but have reached a high of more than $75.
Sticking with recent issues, shares of CoreWeave (CRWV) are under pressure following its second full day of trading following its IPO last week.
The cloud computing startup’s Nasdaq debut was far from a dream run, as it closed flat after opening nearly 3% below its offer price on Friday, giving the Nvidia (NVDA)-backed company a lower-than-expected valuation. The company raised about $1.5 billion in its IPO.
And Wingstop (WING) gained another bull as the stock’s cheap valuation and growth potential in a tough backdrop earned an upgrade at Jefferies to Buy from Hold along with a 21% hike to its target price.
Analyst And Barish said: “We see the stock as oversold, with valuation now overly discounting higher unit and EBITDA growth versus [quick service] and [fast casual] peers.”
In other news of note, amid speculation that Apple (AAPL) is planning to purchase $1 billion worth of Nvidia’s GB300 NVL72 offerings, TF International Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo said it would not boost the iPhone maker’s edge in artificial intelligence “anytime soon.”
Kuo said the size of the order is “way too small,” and compared it to what Meta Platforms (META) has done recently. Meta is expected to buy 1.3M GPUs in 2025, which would be roughly 70 times what Apple is rumored to spend. And with Meta’s focus on AI servers that develop large language models, cutting operational costs and boosting service efficiency, Apple may be falling short in this space.
“Second, GB300 NVL72 mass shipments won’t start until 1H26,” Kuo explained. “Apple’s suppliers here, Dell and Super Micro, aren’t top-tier assemblers like Foxconn or Quanta, so Apple might not get its racks until 2-3Q26, or even later. Clearly, this deal isn’t going to give Apple an AI edge anytime soon, definitely not in the next 12 months.”