What impact will Trump's reciprocal tariffs have on global economy? 'Not dramatic,' says IMF chief

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US President Donald Trump’s tariff threats have sparked concerns about their impact on the global economy. However, IMF Chief Kristalina Georgieva emphasised that they are unlikely to cause significant harm.

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US President Donald Trump’s tariff threats are causing concern, but they are unlikely to have a major global economic impact, IMF Chief Kristalina Georgieva said on Monday.

“There is a lot of anxiety about these developments,” said IMF Chief Kristalina Georgieva during a Reuters event on Monday.

“But I would say there is also a silver lining in this process because it is forcing countries to take much more seriously how to build resilience on their own, based on their own policies,” she said.

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Georgieva said the IMF may slightly lower its 3.3 per cent global growth forecast for this year but does not expect a recession.

Since returning to the White House in January, Trump has introduced tariffs on major trading partners.

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After such moves, global markets have dropped, causing panic and fear.

US consumer confidence has fallen, though unemployment and inflation data have not shown major warning signs yet.

Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs

President Trump plans to introduce “reciprocal tariffs” on several U.S. trading partners starting April 2, which he calls “Liberation Day.” These tariffs include a 25 per cent tax on auto imports and will apply globally with no exemptions. The administration claims this move aims to counter unfair trade practices and push foreign companies to manufacture in the US.

A series of Tariffs with Canada, Mexico and China

In February 2025, Trump signed executive orders imposing a 25 per cent tariff on all imports from Canada and Mexico.

That same month, the administration placed a 10 per cent tariff on Chinese imports, which was raised to 20 per cent on March 4 to address trade imbalances and intellectual property concerns. China retaliated with its own tariffs, worsening trade tensions.

Economists and financial experts warn these tariffs could hurt the economy. Goldman Sachs estimates a 35 per cent chance of a recession within a year. The automotive and oil industries are already feeling the impact, with rising prices and supply chain disruptions.

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