If the history is to go by, chances are good that NSE benchmark Nifty may stage recovery in March, even as cues are mixed for midcap stocks. Vodafone Idea Ltd, HUDCO Ltd and RBL Bank Ltd are some of the F&O stocks that have historically fared badly in March, while stocks such as Nestle India, InterGlobe Aviation and APL Apollo Tubes Ltd, in the past, fared good in the month of March, a data compiled by JM Financial showed.
Nifty delivered a median return of 1.3 per cent in the past 10 Marchs. It settled higher on seven occasions. While its average return for the past 10 Marchs stood at minus 0.3 per cent, barring a steep negative return on 2023, the 50-pack index’s average return stood at 2.3 per cent for the period. The index has plunged 4 per cent in February so far.
The price seasonality for midcaps suggested mixed trend, with the index rising only in five of last 10 Marchs. The medium return for this index stands at 0.8 per cent.
“The Nifty Mid-cap index has exhibited a relatively weaker price seasonality in the month of March. In the last 10 years, the index has closed in the green on 5 occasions with an average return and a median return of -0.6 per cent and 0.8 per cent respectively. Ignoring the steep negative return of 30 per cent in the year 2020, the average return stands at 2.7 per cent,” JM said.
MNC index stocks outperformed Nifty in seven occasions while CPSE index underperformed the NSE benchmark on seven occasions.
Navin Fluorine International Ltd (NFIL), IPCA Laboratories Ltd, KEI Industries Ltd, Nestle India Ltd, SRF Ltd, Page Industries Ltd Interglobe Aviation Ltd and APL Apollo Tubes are some of the F&O stocks, which delivered positive returns in 7-8 times out of 10. These stock delivered an average of 4 per cent return in Marchs.
On the flip side, HFCL Ltd, RBL Bank Ltd, Housing Urban Development Corporation Ltd (HUDCO), Vodafone Idea Ltd, Apollo Hospitals Enterprise (APHS) Ltd, Coal India Ltd, Mahindra and Mahindra Ltd and Bharat Forge Ltd remained stocks that fell 7-8 times during the 10 year period. These stock lost an average of 4 per cent in Marchs.
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