The World Bank said on Monday it expected Syria’s gross domestic product (GDP) to grow modestly by 1% in 2025, following a contraction of 1.5% last year as it cited increased regional engagement, especially from Türkiye and some Gulf states, alongside the easing of sanctions, could facilitate the recovery and attract investments.
“The easing of sanctions provides some upside potential; however, progress remains limited as frozen assets and restricted access to international banking continue to hinder energy supply, foreign assistance, humanitarian support, and trade and investment,” the World Bank said in a statement.
The “Syria Macro Fiscal Assessment 2025” takes stock of Syria’s recent economic trajectory amid the ongoing political transition and regional instability.
The World Bank, in the summary of the report, recalled that fourteen years of conflict have devastated Syria’s economy, with GDP cumulatively contracting by more than 50% since 2010.
“Economic data for Syria is extremely scarce and hard to come by. This macro-fiscal assessment bridges critical information gaps and provides an important foundation for policy dialogue to revitalize economic growth and bring prosperity to Syria,” said Jean-Christophe Carret, World Bank Middle East Division Director.
Recent easing of the U.S. and European Union sanctions is expected to help revive economic activity and recovery in Syria following the fall of long-time ruler Bashar Assad late last year.
The lender highlighted that the new government “has recently taken measures to unify the country’s macroeconomic, fiscal, and monetary policies, focusing on good governance of public funds and sound fiscal and monetary management.”
“Efforts are also being made to attract much-needed foreign investment and aid commitments to support economic recovery,” it added.
“Syria today is a land of opportunities, with immense potential across every sector. The government is actively driving reforms to deliver real results and visible progress on the ground,” said Yisr Barnieh, the country’s finance minister.
“This report highlights Syria’s enormous economic challenges, including from sanctions, but also provides important data and analysis that supports evidence-based policy making. We are very optimistic and confident that our economy will soon achieve higher growth and resume a path of sustainable development.”
However, the report also cited that the outlook remains subject to certain risks as well.
“Security challenges persist and securing oil imports will be a major challenge for the new government, potentially driving up fuel prices and inflation. On the upside, an agreement on resource-sharing or governance between the transitional government and northeastern authorities could boost national oil and gas production,” the report said.
“Additionally, increased regional engagement – especially from Türkiye and some Gulf states – alongside the easing of sanctions, could facilitate the recovery and attract investments. The growing number of returning refugees and internally displaced people may also support medium-term economic revival, provided sanctions are eased to enable investment and trade,” it added.