The Buffalo Niagara region’s unemployment rate held steady at 3.6% during November, in a report that economists say likely did not reflect the job losses from the shutdown of the Sumitomo Rubber USA plant last month.
The state Labor Department’s monthly unemployment report on Monday was based on a survey that was conducted in mid-November, shortly after the Sumitomo plant shut down on Nov. 7. But that may have been too close to be reflected in the November survey since workers still were on the payroll when the results were compiled, economists said.
Justin LaMonto works next to a canning machine at the Community Beer Works production facility on Dec. 10, 2024.
As a result, the November unemployment report shows only a modest increase in the number of unemployed people, which rose by 300 to 19,600. The Sumitomo shutdown eliminated 1,550 jobs at the Town of Tonawanda tire plant.
But the impact of those job losses likely will be significant. If all 1,550 job cuts were included in the November unemployment report, the local jobless rate would have increased to 3.9%.
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Still, the impact of the Sumitomo shutdown is unlikely to be that severe when the next jobless report is released, simply because some of the displaced workers have been able to find jobs in a tight labor market, where manufacturing skills are in high demand. And by the time the December unemployment report is released late next month, it is likely that even more of the Sumitomo workers will have found other employment.
A separate report issued last Thursday said the region added 1,500 jobs during November, making it one of the strongest months for job growth this year. Again, economists said the jobs data almost certainly did not reflect the Sumitomo shutdown. If it had, it would have wiped out most of the reported job gains in November.
As it was, the November unemployment report showed that the region’s job market continues to be restrained by a shrinking pool of available workers, which has lost nearly 15,000 people over the past year. Economists believe the region’s aging population is largely responsible, with more workers heading into retirement than there are young people coming into the labor pool to replace them.
The pool of workers who either have jobs or are actively looking for one has shrunk by 2.6% over the past year, the Labor Department said. At the same time, the number of people holding jobs slid by 1,400, or about 0.3%.
The unemployment rate, which was unchanged from October, remains at historically low levels for the region. The November jobless rate was the second-lowest for any month since June 2023 and was down from 4.1% in November 2023.
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