The ADP Non-Farm Employment Change report for October 2025 came out today, and it’s pretty important given the ongoing government shutdown that’s leaving the markets without official labor data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Predictions are pointing to around 25,000 new private-sector jobs, a nice bounce back from the unexpected loss of 32,000 jobs in September. Some prediction markets like Kalshi are even more upbeat, estimating 41,000 new jobs. This report is crucial for gauging the health of the labor market since the Federal Reserve’s decisions rest on job stability during these uncertain economic times.
Looking at the ADP weekly figures, there’s a bit of progress in the labor market. Job additions averaged 14,250 over the four weeks leading up to October 11, which is up from 10,750 the week before, but still lower than what we saw in late September. On the regional front, Fed surveys are giving mixed messages: New York, Philadelphia, and Dallas show some bearish signs, while Richmond and Kansas City have more positive trends. All these conflicting signals make the October ADP report really important for predicting broader labor trends, especially after the Federal Reserve’s 25-basis-point rate cut on October 29.
Since ADP’s data covers about 20% of U.S. private-sector workers, this report is likely to have a big impact on the dollar and Treasury markets. If the results come in stronger than expected, it could indicate that the labor market is stabilizing, which would ease some worries after that poor performance in September. On the flip side, a weak report could heighten fears of a deeper slowdown. With the Federal Reserve and investors adapting to the absence of government data, this ADP report is shaping up to be the month’s key indicator for the labor market.