Texas could lose nearly 68,000 jobs and over $400 million in tax revenue in 2026 if federal cuts to Medicaid and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program pass Congress, according to a new report.
Analysis by the Commonwealth Fund and the George Washington University Milken Institute School of Public Health found that cuts to both programs could also shrink the state’s economy by $7 billion and lead to $1.7 billion in lost federal funding.
“It’s something that could have some serious adverse effects in Texas, not just for the poor people who get health insurance or food assistance,” said Leighton Ku, the report’s lead author.
More than 4 million Texans rely on Medicaid and nearly 3.6 million rely on SNAP, according to Texas Health and Human Services data.
Republicans in the U.S. Congress have sought budget cuts as they look to extend President Donald Trump’s 2017 tax cuts. A budget resolution passed in the House of Representatives calls for up to $880 billion in cuts expected to target Medicaid and $230 billion possibly targeting SNAP over the next decade.
The U.S. Senate will tackle a separate version of the budget resolution as soon as Wednesday, according to POLITICO.
Specific plans for both programs are unclear. However, research on the broad plans suggests that the cuts could lead to fewer program participants and leave others with less food purchasing power or health care access.
Ku said his team’s report found the cuts could have broader implications for those who do not rely on either program.
“What we’re really trying to add on is to say it’s not just the people who are getting the SNAP and Medicaid benefits who are affected,” he said. “It really has deeper repercussions.”
The projected job losses include those in the health care and food production sectors and jobs indirectly related to both Medicaid and SNAP.
Children’s health advocates are also monitoring discussions surrounding program funding for their potential impact on pediatrics in the state.
Stacy Wilson is president of the Children’s Hospital Association of Texas, which represents hospital systems including Children’s Health and Cook Children’s. Medicaid pays for nearly 60% of inpatient days at children’s hospitals.
A third of the patients hospitals in the CHAT network see are transferred from other hospitals for specialized care for chronic conditions such as cancer, spina bifida and organ failure
“Those kids are coming to us because there is no place else for them to go,” Wilson said. “Nobody else has that ability to treat those conditions. Our concern is that when you start getting significant cuts to a primary payer of yours, then you have to make some difficult decisions about what kind of cutbacks presumably you’re going to need to respond to those cuts.”
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