CNN
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The latest snapshot of job openings in the US shows that there were 7.74 million available positions at the end of January, signaling renewed optimism from US employers to start the year.
The number of job openings rose from December’s downwardly revised total of 7.51 million, according to the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey released Tuesday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Although backward-looking, the report provides a critical baseline for US labor market activity — job openings, hires, quits and separations such as layoffs — before President Donald Trump’s sweeping policy actions kicked into higher gear, rattling consumers, businesses and investors alike and reigniting recession fears.
“For now, the labor market remains stable. But that’s just January,” Julia Pollak, chief economist at ZipRecruiter, wrote in commentary on Tuesday. “The February report will likely look very different: federal government openings will plunge, quits will spike, and layoffs could finally begin to rise. In other words, calm today, but turbulence ahead.”
Economists expected openings — a closely watched gauge of labor demand — to increase to 7.7 million, up 100,000 from the preliminary estimate, according to FactSet.
January’s report showed that job openings increased across many major sectors, with the sharpest upticks in industries such as real estate, finance and retail, according to the report. The number of available positions shrank in industries such as arts, entertainment and recreation (which also reported a boost of hiring for the month); private educational services; and transportation, warehousing and utilities.
Tuesday’s report showed that hiring activity remained steady, adding an estimated 5.4 million jobs in January and running at a rate of 3.4% of total employment.
The number of layoffs dropped in January to 1.64 million, the lowest level since June. Layoffs as a percentage of total employment dipped to 1%, landing back near historic lows.
The closely watched “quits rate,” which serves as both a gauge of employee confidence as well as an indicator of future wage growth, shot higher to 2.1% in January from 1.9% in December. The level of quits rose to an estimated 3.27 million from 3.1 million in December, showing improvement in labor market turnover.
The typical “churn” that occurs in a healthy labor market had been slowing through the second half of last year, which some economists attributed to factors such as inflation, high interest rates, as well as heightened uncertainty heading to the election.
The times, and economy “are a-changin’”
In the years following the economy-upheaving pandemic, job growth has slowed, but it has not collapsed. The gains have remained solid enough to fuel consumer spending and put the economy on track for a “soft landing” of reining in inflation without triggering a recession.
That resilience continued into at least the first part of last month. The BLS’ latest jobs report showed that US employers added an estimated 151,000 jobs in February.
The JOLTS report lags the jobs report by a month (although the data feeding into the respective reports are collected at different times: the jobs report around the middle of the month and JOLTS at the end of the month).
As such, neither report were expected to fully show the impacts of the Trump administration’s mass layoffs of federal workers.
January’s JOLTS report showed that there were 135,000 job openings for federal workers, landing slightly below the 138,000 seen in December and 140,000 from January 2024.
“But the times, they are a-changin’,” economist Christopher Rupkey at FwdBonds wrote on Tuesday. “The new administration has declared federal government spending to be a national emergency and government employees are likely to be collateral damage as private sector terms like efficiency and cost-cutting are being tossed about.”
It’s unknown to what extent the “cost-cutting zeal” spreads through the private sector, Rupkey said.
A lot has changed for the economy in recent weeks. The Trump administration’s monumental policy shifts — including large-scale federal layoffs, funding cutbacks, a back-and-forth on tariffs and mass deportations — have spilled into the broader economy, shaking business and consumer confidence, and resulting in the tripping of several economic warning signals.
Stocks plummeted to start the week, as Trump didn’t rule out the possibility of a recession during a Fox Business interview this past weekend.
“If too much federal government spending was said to help cause the inflation outbreak during the pandemic, what does it mean when Washington turns off the money spigot that supports services for ordinary Americans?” Rupkey added. “The stock market thinks it knows. Trade threats are escalating, and they could well bring down the US economy and its two North American trading partners.”
Although slightly lagged, the JOLTS report typically is released in the days leading up to the latest jobs report. January’s report, however, is landing afterwards, a scheduling decision made to allow for annual employment updates, including seasonal adjustment factors, BLS officials said.