Real Estate News

October 17, 2024

Real Estate € Supply Outlook 2025

Posted By: admin

view original post

Real estate bond supply has exceeded our expectations so far in 2024, with total €-denominated real estate issuance at c€19bn as of October 2024. We had initially forecasted supply of €15bn for the year, which was already a large increase compared to 2023 (€8bn). However, supply has been even stronger than expected, with many companies having taken advantage of improving capital markets and substantial demand in 2024.

We expect supply to pick up meaningfully again in 2025, pencilling in €30bn for real estate. While €30bn is significantly higher than recent years, it is still a lot lower than 2020 and 2021, and more in line with 2018 and 2019. We see five main reasons for the 2025 increase:

Redemptions start to pick up
Transaction volumes likely to improve
Bond market conditions improve for more issuers
Real estate turns the corner
Green bond supply remains strong

For 2024, redemptions and supply are set to be broadly similar, with the potential for net supply to be marginally positive. This follows the -€11bn of net negative supply in 2023, a real outlier as the chart below shows. For 2025, we think net positive supply is c€6bn, which is still low in a historical context.

wealthcreationinvesting.com is not an investment advisor and is not registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission or the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority. Further, owners, employees, agents or representatives of wealthcreationinvesting.com are not acting as investment advisors and might not be registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission or the Financial Industry Regulatory.

The sender of this email makes no representations or warranties concerning the products, practices or procedures of any company or entity mentioned or recommended in this email, and makes no representations or warranties concerning said company or entity’s compliance with applicable laws and regulations, including, but not limited to, regulations promulgated by the SEC or the CFTC. The sender of this email may receive a portion of the proceeds from the sale of any products or services offered by a company or entity mentioned or recommended in this email. The recipient of this email assumes responsibility for conducting its own due diligence on the aforementioned company or entity and assumes full responsibility, and releases the sender from liability, for any purchase or order made from any company or entity mentioned or recommended in this email.

The content on any of wealthcreationinvesting.com websites, products or communication is for educational purposes only. Nothing in its products, services, or communications shall be construed as a solicitation and/or recommendation to buy or sell a security. Trading stocks, options and other securities involves risk. The risk of loss in trading securities can be substantial. The risk involved with trading stocks, options and other securities is not suitable for all investors. Prior to buying or selling an option, an investor must evaluate his/her own personal financial situation and consider all relevant risk factors. See: Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.

The information presented in this site is not intended to be used as the sole basis of any investment decisions, nor should it be construed as advice designed to meet the investment needs of any particular investor. Nothing in our research constitutes legal, accounting or tax advice or individually tailored investment advice. Our research is prepared for general circulation and has been prepared without regard to the individual financial circumstances and objectives of persons who receive or obtain access to it. Our research is based on sources that we believe to be reliable. However, we do not make any representation or warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy of our research, the completeness, or correctness or make any guarantee or other promise as to any results that may be obtained from using our research. To the maximum extent permitted by law, neither we, any of our affiliates, nor any other person, shall have any liability whatsoever to any person for any loss or expense, whether direct, indirect, consequential, incidental or otherwise, arising from or relating in any way to any use of or reliance on our research or the information contained therein. Some discussions contain forward looking statements which are based on current expectations and differences can be expected. All of our research, including the estimates, opinions and information contained therein, reflects our judgment as of the publication or other dissemination date of the research and is subject to change without notice. Further, we expressly disclaim any responsibility to update such research. Investing involves substantial risk. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results, and a loss of original capital may occur. No one receiving or accessing our research should make any investment decision without first consulting his or her own personal financial advisor and conducting his or her own research and due diligence, including carefully reviewing any applicable prospectuses, press releases, reports and other public filings of the issuer of any securities being considered. None of the information presented should be construed as an offer to sell or buy any particular security. As always, use your best judgment when investing.

Disclaimer: Past performance is no guarantee of future performance. This product is for educational purposes only. Practical application of the products herein are at your own risk and wealthcreationinvesting.com, its partners, representatives and employees assume no responsibility or liability for any use or mis-use of the product. Please contact your financial advisor for specific financial advice tailored to your personal circumstances. Any trades shown are hypothetical example and do not represent actual trades. Actual results may differ. Nothing here in constitutes a recommendation respecting the particular security illustrated.