A new data website from Reason Founation, Florida Policy Project, and the DeVoe Moore Center and Florida State University shows the details of Sarasota County’s housing crisis, and that of every county in Florida and statewide.
The Florida Housing Data Project tracks housing vacancy and occupancy trends, offering a granular view of surpluses and shortages, and examines workable solutions for each county.
Sarasota County faces a mounting housing crisis. With a population swelling to nearly 470,000 by 2023—a 100,000-person leap since 2001—the county grapples with a persistent housing shortage, estimated at 2,603 units. Soaring median listing prices, hovering around $500,000, far outstrip the affordability threshold for median-income households, worsening inequities. The county very much needs targeted policies to boost both rental and owner-occupied housing supply to restore market balance.
Countywide, we are short at least 1,911 owner-occupied units and 692 rental units. As recently as 2010, the county had a 2,229-unit surplus of housing. But as Figure 5 shows, for the last decade the county has run a consistent housing deficit.
The graph shows Sarasota County’s Housing surplus vs. shortage trends.
Population growth underpins this strain. From 333,707 people in 2001 to 469,013 in 2023, Sarasota County’s steady 40% rise is fueling housing demand. Permitting of new housing, on the other hand, has been inconsistent and lagged, as Figure 3 shows. The number of new units permitted has simply not been enough to keep up as demand outpaces construction.
Single family vs. multifamily residential permits.
Affordability is Sarasota’s achilles’ heel. In our county, you must make twice the median income to afford a median-priced home.
The 2023 median household income countywide is $80,633, yielding an “affordable” home price of $294,462 under the 30% income rule for a 7%, 30-year mortgage. Yet, the median listing price was $541,706 in 2023, a $247,243 gap for median earners. Even people making 150% of the area median income ($120,950), are looking at average home prices $82,616 more than they can afford.
This gap between incomes and housing prices is locking out low- and moderate-income residents, reserving homeownership for the wealthy, sidelining teachers, nurses, and service workers critical to Sarasota’s tourism-driven economy.
It’s worth noting this is not just a Sarasota County problem. Statewide, we are short over 120,000 housing units, and many counties have failed to allow housing supply to keep up with demand. And thus, in many counties, household income must be twice the median to be able to afford a home.
There are fixes for these problems. No single policy can erase a 2,603-unit deficit overnight. But the most important thing is for county officials to stop listening to NIMBYs, who oppose all new housing, and allow the supply of housing to keep up with demand. For example, issue more permits.
Florida’s Live Local Act changed state law to make this easier.
It allows multi-family housing on commercial and industrial land with affordability mandates. It also has tax exemptions for “missing middle” housing. The county’s recent multi-family permit spike aligns with this, but sustained efforts are necessary to reverse the 692-unit rental deficit. Financial incentives, like impact fee waivers for affordable projects, also show promise. As of March 2023, Sarasota exempts multi-family units at 60% AMI or below from park and library fees and waives mobility fees for affordable developments, slashing developer costs. These should persist, but they are nibbles at the problem compared to issuing more permits.
Likewise, Sarasota’s approval of “surplus lots” for affordable housing and its 2019 Accessory Dwelling Unit (ADU) policy — allowing units up to 750 square feet in select districts without density limits — are steps forward. Reforming ADU restrictions further could unlock small-scale supply, ideal for retirees or young professionals.
It would also complement another much-needed change, which is to allow smaller lot sizes, which could allow some new development to be denser than we usually see here.
By leaning into Live Local, expanding incentives, and most importantly easing land-use rules, Sarasota can chip away at its $247,243 affordability gap. For a county where median prices nearly double affordable thresholds, action is urgent to ensure housing for all, not just the affluent.