'A revolutionary product': Here's what Wall Street is saying about Apple's new Vision Pro headset device that costs $3,499

Apple Vision ProApple

  • Apple announced the Vision Pro, a $3,499 mixed-reality headset that will be released in early 2024.

  • Wall Street is reacting to the device, with one analyst expecting more than 1 million units sold in its first year.

  • Here’s what four analysts had to say about Apple’s first major product launch since the Apple Watch.

Apple on Monday unveiled its first major product since the Apple Watch in 2015, and Wall Street is taking notice.

The $3,499 Vision Pro headset offers both augmented- and virtual-reality capabilities, hand-based gesture controls, and advanced eye tracking. The device is set to be released in early 2024, according to Apple.

Few expect the Vision Pro to become a mass market device in its first few years given the higher-than-expected price point, but Wall Street estimates are still far apart on their sales expectations.

Bank of America expects Apple to sell 1.5 million units of the Vision Pro in its first year, while Wedbush expects first-year sales of only 150,000 units. Those ranges imply that the Vision Pro will generate between $525 million and $5.2 billion in revenue next year. Apple stock has sold off 3% since Monday afternoon’s Vision Pro announcement.

Here’s what four Wall Street analysts had to say about Apple’s new device.

Wedbush: “A revolutionary product.”
Rating: Outperform — Price Target: $205

“This marks a new era for Apple being the first new product line in almost a decade and the first 3-D interface for the company that has many use cases and apps within the Cupertino ecosystem that should distinguish the Vision Pro from the competition such as the Meta Quest. Given the high price points, we believe initial shipments are expected to be roughly 150,000 units for Year 1 and roughly a 1 million units in Year 2 at lower price points,” Wedbush analyst Dan Ives said.

Bank of America: “Adoption will take time.”
Rating: Neutral — Price Target: $190

“The price tag of $3,499 was higher than the $3K broadly speculated. While we believe MR has the potential to drive Services revenues higher via a new set of premium Apps the adoption will take time… In our prior analysis we had estimated 1.5 million units to be sold in the first full year, and the launch today did not change our view. We continue to expect at least some subsequent versions of Vision Pro to be priced lower in order to appeal to a larger customer set,” Bank of America’s Wasmi Mohan said.

JPMorgan: “Potential catalyst for AR/VR market.”
Rating: Overweight — Price Target: $190

“While Vision Pro might not drive significant volumes given its premium price point, it could be the potential catalyst for the the AR/VR market as Apple has proven in the past that consumer engagement can deliver willingness to pay premium pricing and Apple’s focus is clearly to hit a home-run on consumer engagement as opposed to volumes with the first device in what admittedly will be a multi-year journey for the platform,” JPMorgan’s Samik Chatterjee said.

Goldman Sachs:
Rating: Buy — Price Target: $209

“We’re encouraged by the long-term growth contributions from the headset and Vision Pro app ecosystem, but expect near-term financial contributions to be limited as (1) the relatively high retail price point may limit near-term adoption; (2) previous media reports suggest the headset may be sold at breakeven; and (3) a relatively smaller installed base limits contributions from additional services revenue,” Goldman Sachs’ Michael Ng said.

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