Chartist Talk: Nifty 50 may face more downside, says Sudeep Shah; four stocks bullish, HUL in focus

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Momentum indicators remain weak, with the weekly RSI hovering around the 45 mark—its lowest level since April 2025—and trading below its 9-week average, signalling persistent downside momentum in Nifty 50, said Sudeep Shah.

Sunil Shankar Matkar

January 25, 2026 / 06:44 IST

Sudeep Shah is Head – Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities

  • Momentum indicators remain weak, signalling persistent downside momentum in Nifty 50
  • 25,400–25,450 zone is likely to be critical resistance for Nifty
  • Immediate support placed near 24,800, followed by 24,600 in near term

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Until the Nifty 50 reclaims the 25,400-25,450 band, the risk of further downside remains, with immediate support placed near 24,800, followed by 24,600 in the near term, said Sudeep Shah, Head – Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities, in an interview with Moneycontrol.

He believes Tech Mahindra continues to maintain a bullish bias after a decisive downward-sloping trendline breakout on January 16, supported by a sharp surge in volumes, while the momentum setup suggests Indian Bank and Hindustan Unilever are poised for an upside breakout.

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As long as APL Apollo Tubes holds above Rs 1,910–1,900 short-term moving average support zone (20-Day EMA), the overall trend is likely to remain positive, with further upside potential intact, he said.

Do you see the possibility of the Nifty 50 shedding another 2–3 percent in the coming truncated week, or is it likely to consolidate around the 25,000 level ahead of the Union Budget?

From its record high, the benchmark Nifty has corrected sharply by more than 5% within a span of just 11 trading sessions, making it one of the swiftest drawdowns seen in recent times. While the index attempted a brief rebound after finding interim support near the 24,900 mark on Wednesday, the recovery lacked follow-through, and selling pressure re-emerged on Friday, dragging the index lower once again.

The decline has been led by sustained weakness in index heavyweights. Technically, a key negative development is Nifty’s break below its 200-day EMA for the first time since April 2025, accompanied by the formation of a large bearish candle on the weekly chart.

Momentum indicators remain weak, with the weekly RSI hovering around the 45 mark—its lowest level since April 2025—and trading below its 9-week average, signalling persistent downside momentum.

The broader market has faced even steeper pressure. Both the Nifty Midcap 100 and Nifty Smallcap 100 have seen sharp declines over the past week. The Midcap index has slipped below its 200-day EMA, while the Smallcap index is trading more than 7% below the same long-term average, underscoring strong bearish undertones in the broader space.

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Looking ahead, the 25,400–25,450 zone is likely to act as a critical resistance for Nifty. Until the index reclaims this band, the risk of further downside remains, with immediate support placed near 24,800, followed by 24,600 in the near term.

Do you think the Bank Nifty has witnessed sufficient selling, or do you still see scope for a further major correction?

The Bank Nifty, which had been relatively outperforming over the past few weeks, came under pronounced selling pressure during the previous week. The index declined by over 2.5%, forming a strong bearish candle on the weekly chart—highlighting a clear loss of momentum. More importantly, Bank Nifty has slipped below its 50-day EMA for the first time since October 2025, signalling a deterioration in the short-term trend.

Momentum indicators have also turned negative. The daily RSI has fallen below the 40 mark for the first time since September 2025, pointing to rising bearish sentiment. At the same time, the –DI remains well above the +DI, indicating firm control by sellers. The rising ADX suggests that the ongoing downtrend is gradually strengthening.

From here, the 100-day EMA zone near 58,200–58,100 is likely to act as an immediate support area. A decisive and sustained breakdown below 58,100 could deepen the correction toward 57,500, and potentially extend it to 57,000 in the near term. On the upside, the 20-day EMA band of 59,300–59,400 is expected to act as a key resistance, with only a sustained move above this zone signalling the possibility of a recovery.

What are your top two stock ideas for the coming week?

Tech Mahindra

Tech Mahindra continues to maintain a bullish bias after a decisive downward-sloping trendline breakout on January 16, supported by a sharp surge in volumes. Post-breakout, the stock witnessed a strong follow-through rally and has since entered a brief consolidation phase, indicating healthy price digestion. Importantly, the stock is placed comfortably above its key short- and long-term moving averages, keeping the broader trend intact.

A steadily rising ADX points to strengthening trend momentum, while the RSI holds above 60. The MACD continues to move higher, positioned well above the zero line, reinforcing the positive outlook. Hence, we recommend accumulating the stock in the zone of Rs 1,700-1,690 with a stop-loss of Rs 1,645. On the upside, it is likely to test the level of Rs 1,820 in the short term.

Indian Bank

Indian Bank has been on a steady uptrend since rebounding from its 100-day EMA on December 16, forming a clear higher high-higher low structure. The stock is currently hovering near its key resistance zone of Rs 900–910, indicating strong underlying demand. Momentum has improved meaningfully, with the RSI climbing from 48 levels to above 60, reflecting strengthening buying interest.

The MACD remains well above the zero and signal line, while prices continue to trade above key short- and long-term moving averages. Overall, the momentum setup suggests the stock is poised for an upside breakout, with further gains likely upon a decisive move above resistance. Hence, we recommend accumulating the stock in the zone of Rs 880-875 with a stop-loss of Rs 850. On the upside, it is likely to test the level of Rs 940 in the short term.

Are you bullish on Silver ETFs, which managed to maintain their uptrend last week as well?

While Silver has had a fantastic run, we feel it’s currently placed in an extremely overbought zone, and the risk-reward equation is not favourable to go long at current levels. One should surely avoid fresh long positions at the current levels.

Do you expect further upside in APL Apollo Tubes?

APL Apollo Tubes has given a strong technical breakout by closing above its previous swing high of Rs 1,994 (January 2), reinforcing the ongoing uptrend. The stock has successfully defended its 20-day EMA twice earlier this month, highlighting strong buying interest on dips.

On the momentum front, DI+ crossing above DI- in the ADX indicator signals a shift in trend strength in favour of bulls, indicating that positive directional momentum is now dominating. Adding to this, volumes have picked up over the last couple of sessions, lending credibility to the breakout.

The RSI’s sharp jump from 49 to 66 within just two sessions reflects accelerating bullish momentum. As long as the stock holds above the Rs 1,910–1,900 short-term moving average support zone (20-Day EMA), the overall trend is likely to remain positive, with further upside potential intact.

Do you see the possibility of a significant upside breakout in Hindustan Unilever after its consolidation phase?

Hindustan Unilever has been consolidating in the Rs 2,439–2,341 range since January 6, marking a healthy pause after a strong pullback from the Rs 2,245 lows recorded on December 12. Despite the sideways price action, the stock continues to trade comfortably above its short- and long-term moving averages, keeping the broader structure positive.

Momentum indicators remain supportive – RSI is inching closer to the 60 mark, while the MACD stays above both the signal line and the zero line, reflecting sustained bullish bias. Additionally, a steady rise in ADX points to strengthening trend momentum. Overall indicator placement suggests the stock is well-poised for an upside breakout in the near term.

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