FACTBOX-Wall Street banks expect 'hawkish pause' from Fed in June

(Updates HSBC forecasts) June 13 (Reuters) – Most big Wall Street banks expect the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, while sticking to its hawkish tone due to a strong job market and elevated inflation. Several economists say that it is a toss-up between a skip and a hike in the June meeting, and most banks expect the central bank to prepare markets for a hike in July. Money markets are currently pricing in a more than 80% chance of a pause this month, with rate cut expectations pushed out to next year. Following are forecasts from some big U.S. banks and their global counterparts: Brokerage June Expectation July Expectation Terminal rate Name expectations Citigroup 25 bps hike 25 bps hike 5.5% – 5.75% HSBC 25 bps hike 5.25% – 5.50% Pause UBS Pause 25 bps hike 5.25% – 5.50% Deutsche Pause See Fed raising rates one 5.30% Bank more time in July Goldman Pause 25 bps hike 5.25% – 5.50% Sachs Barclays Pause Expects 50 bps of hikes through September; expects Fed to signal a hike in July J.P.Morgan Pause No hike 5% – 5.25% Morgan Pause No hike 5% – 5.25% Stanley BofA Pause Sees a July hike as “highly 5% – 5.25% probable” Wells Fargo Pause No hike 5% – 5.25% Nomura Pause (Compiled by Broker Research team in Bengaluru)

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