The possibility of a U.S.-listed Solana exchange-traded fund (ETF) has moved from speculation to near certainty, according to Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas. Following recent procedural changes at the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), approval odds for the fund are now being described as effectively guaranteed. The news has sparked renewed interest in Solana (SOL), though experts caution that while approval may drive speculative inflows, the market could also experience a short-term correction once the ETF goes live.
SEC Rule Changes Remove Old Timelines
Historically, ETF proposals submitted to the SEC followed a strict review process tied to 19b-4 filings, which gave regulators up to 240 days to approve or reject applications. However, the SEC’s recent adoption of generic listing standards has rendered this review clock irrelevant.
Instead, the approval process is now primarily tied to the S-1 registration statements, which require a separate green light from the SEC’s Division of Corporation Finance. These filings determine when an ETF can officially begin trading.
Balchunas explained that Solana’s S-1 has already gone through several updates:
“That just leaves the S-1s waiting for formal green light from Corp Finance. And they just submitted amendment #4 for Solana. The baby could come any day. Be ready,” he wrote.
This procedural change shifts the final decision away from prolonged timelines, suggesting that Solana’s ETF could receive approval much sooner than many investors had expected.
Balchunas: “Odds Are 100% Now”
Eric Balchunas has long been regarded as one of the leading voices in ETF analysis. In his latest commentary, he declared the odds of approval for a Solana ETF to be “really 100% now.”
The analyst’s certainty comes from the fact that the new SEC framework leaves few barriers to formal sign-off. With four amendments already filed for Solana’s S-1 statement, the regulatory process appears to be in its final stages.
This assessment has fueled speculation that approval could arrive in the coming days or weeks, potentially marking a milestone moment for Solana and the broader crypto ETF market.
Could Solana Repeat Bitcoin’s ETF Success?
The introduction of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs earlier this year provided a glimpse of the impact crypto ETFs can have on market flows. According to SoSoValue data, Bitcoin ETFs attracted $12.13 billion in inflows within their first ten weeks, highlighting strong institutional demand.
Ethereum ETFs, on the other hand, experienced a rockier start. Initially, they recorded $522.97 million in outflows before stabilizing and reversing the trend. Over the following three months, inflows reached $3.56 billion, reflecting growing investor confidence.
The question now is whether Solana ETFs can replicate Bitcoin’s explosive momentum or whether they will follow a more measured path similar to Ethereum.
Analysts Warn of “Sell the News” Risk
Not everyone is convinced that a Solana ETF will immediately spark a surge in demand. Jeffery Ding, chief analyst at HashKey Group, told Decrypt that approval could result in a short-lived speculative rally, followed by a possible correction.
“A Solana ETF could trigger speculative buying ahead of approval, followed by a potential ‘sell the news’ correction once launched—similar to what we saw with Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs,” Ding said.
He also emphasized that Solana lacks some of the institutional recognition that Ethereum enjoys.
“Institutional investors already have a clearer understanding of Ethereum’s asset characteristics and associated risks,” he explained. “Ethereum’s ecosystem hosts critical financial infrastructure such as real-world assets and stablecoin issuance, both of which are tightly connected to the traditional financial system.”
This, according to Ding, makes it less likely that Solana will attract larger inflows than Ethereum in the short term.
What Approval Could Mean for Solana
Even if inflows do not match those of Ethereum, approval of a Solana ETF would still mark a historic step. It would not only increase the accessibility of SOL for U.S. investors but also signal stronger recognition of Solana’s role in the broader blockchain ecosystem.
The ETF could further legitimize Solana as an investable asset class for traditional finance, opening the door for pensions, hedge funds, and asset managers to allocate capital in a regulated manner.
Currently, Solana is trading at $211.17, according to CoinGecko, showing modest gains of less than 1% on the day. Market watchers expect volatility to rise as investors position themselves ahead of an official SEC decision.
A Defining Moment for Crypto ETFs
The potential approval of a Solana ETF highlights how rapidly the U.S. regulatory environment for crypto is evolving. Just a year ago, the notion of multiple crypto ETFs seemed distant. Now, Bitcoin ETFs are drawing billions in inflows, Ethereum ETFs have stabilized after a rocky debut, and Solana appears to be next in line.
Whether the Solana ETF delivers explosive growth or a more subdued entry, it represents another step toward mainstream adoption of digital assets in traditional financial markets.
For investors, the approval may bring both opportunity and risk. Speculative rallies could present short-term gains, but long-term value will depend on Solana’s ability to strengthen its ecosystem and build institutional trust.
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