S&P 500 Price Forecast – Stock Markets Wait for Central Bank Meetings

S&P 500 Technical Analysis

The S&P 500 has initially tried to rally during the trading session on Monday but gave back gains again as the area above the 4300 level continues to be tough to get through. With this being the case, I think this is probably a market that is simply waiting to see what happens with the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. All things being equal, the market continues to be very bullish as we pretend that the global economy is recovering quite rapidly. That being said, let’s be honest here, this is all about liquidity, as the market has become divorced from economic headwinds after the Great Financial Crisis.

That being said, it will be interesting to see how we react to the Federal Reserve statement, but it’s probably worth noting that the 50-Day EMA racing toward the 4200 level act as a floor on any type of selloff, unless the Federal Reserve explicitly says that they are going to continue tightening. On the upside, if we break above the highs of both Friday and Monday, then we could very well see this market go reaching into more of a “buy-and-hold” phase. I think it’s probably difficult to be that bullish before the Federal Reserve announcement, but that certainly looks to be what most people are at least thinking.

It’s also probably worth noting that there are 5 stocks that currently make up 25% of the S&P 500. Remember, this is not an equal weighted index, so therefore you probably should think of this more or less as an ETF on some of the biggest companies in the world, not necessarily an indicator on what’s going on with the US itself. As long as that continues to be the case, and there’s absolutely no sign of that changing, this is still a market that will try to defy gravity any chance he gets. As long as the usual suspects like Apple are doing well, the S&P 500 will as well. It’s probably worth noting that the equal weighted S&P 500 ETF is essentially flat.

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