Investor confidence in XRP continues to grow as the probability of an XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) receiving approval by the end of 2025 has surged to an impressive 98%, according to data from the prediction platform Polymarket. This spike in optimism comes despite ongoing delays from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on decisions related to spot XRP ETFs, signaling a strong belief among market participants that XRP is poised for broader acceptance within traditional finance.
The journey toward an XRP ETF approval has faced several hurdles this year. In April, the SEC delayed its decision on Franklin Templeton’s spot XRP ETF application, setting a new review deadline of June 17. Similarly, another prominent application from 21Shares was postponed in late May. These delays have dampened short-term enthusiasm, with the chance of SEC approval before July 2025 dropping to a historic low of 19%, according to Polymarket data.
Despite these setbacks, long-term expectations remain robust. Polymarket’s data shows that by early June, the probability of an XRP ETF gaining approval by December 2025 hovered around 93%, after peaking at 98% the previous day. This trend suggests that investors widely expect the SEC’s final verdict to come late in the year, likely in the fourth quarter. Industry experts have echoed this timeline, with Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart forecasting a decision around October 18, 2025. Seyffart noted that any early approvals are unlikely before late June or July, making a fourth-quarter outcome more probable.
One key development bolstering this positive outlook has been the introduction of XRP futures trading on May 19. The introduction of regulated futures is significant because the SEC has historically cited the lack of a mature and regulated futures market as a major reason for denying ETF applications. Futures markets that are regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and closely track spot prices improve market transparency and reduce manipulation risks, strengthening the case for ETF approval. Dean Chen, an analyst at Bitunix, explained that regulated futures increase market integrity, a crucial factor for the SEC’s approval process.
XRP stands out in the ETF race with the highest number of filings among all altcoins. Several major asset management firms have filed applications with the SEC, signaling strong institutional interest. These firms include Bitwise, 21Shares, Canary Capital, Grayscale, Franklin Templeton, ProShares, WisdomTree, CoinShares, Volatility Shares, Hashdex, MEMX, and Teucrium. Together, these firms oversee billions in assets and view XRP as a promising digital asset for inclusion in mainstream investment portfolios.
The anticipation surrounding ETF approval has influenced XRP’s price movement as well. Between mid-May and the end of the month, XRP faced a sharp decline, losing over 23% of its value amid market volatility and regulatory uncertainties. However, since the beginning of June, the altcoin has been steadily recovering, regaining about 10% of its losses. At the time of writing, XRP was trading around $2.20, reflecting a 1.8% gain over the past 24 hours.
This recovery highlights how market sentiment can quickly shift when there are positive developments or strong rumors of progress. Investors closely watch regulatory news and developments related to ETFs because these funds can significantly increase the accessibility of cryptocurrencies to traditional investors and institutions.
The approval of an XRP ETF would mark a milestone in the cryptocurrency industry. ETFs provide a regulated, easily tradable vehicle for exposure to digital assets, which could lead to increased demand and greater price stability. For XRP, an ETF approval would not only validate its legitimacy in the eyes of regulators but also potentially unlock new pools of capital from investors who have so far been cautious about direct crypto ownership.
Looking ahead, market participants remain cautiously optimistic. While the SEC’s delays have caused frustration and uncertainty, the ongoing introduction of regulated futures markets, coupled with strong institutional backing and increasing retail interest, creates a favorable environment for eventual ETF approval. Investors are advised to watch closely for official statements from the SEC and consider the broader regulatory landscape shaping the future of digital asset investments.
In summary, despite short-term regulatory delays, the long-term outlook for XRP ETF approval remains overwhelmingly positive. If the SEC follows through by the end of 2025, XRP could see a significant boost in mainstream adoption and market value, marking a new chapter for the cryptocurrency and the broader industry.
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