A new blood test tool can predict a person’s life span based on how rapidly their organs are aging, according to a new Stanford University study.
Lead author Tony Wyss-Coray and his team monitored the brain, muscle, heart, lung, arteries, liver, kidneys, pancreas, immune system, intestine and fat health of almost 45,000 participants aged 40 to 70 over a 17-year period. The scientists used a form of AI called machine learning to estimate a person’s age based on organ specific proteins in the blood in a study to be published online Wednesday in the journal Nature Medicine.
The brain was identified as the best predictor of mortality, finding that those with an “extremely aged” brain had an increased risk of dying by 182% over a 15-year period, while those with “extremely youthful” brains had a decreased risk of dying by 40% over the same period.
Actual and biological age
“Aging is an accumulation of wear and tear … You have some genetic predisposition, some family history and then some lifestyle habits that influence which organs show the earliest, most notable changes with age, but some of it can also be random,” said Wyss-Coray, director of the Knight Initiative for Brain Resilience at Stanford’s Wu Tsai Neurosciences Institute.
WHAT NEWSDAY FOUND
- Stanford University scientists developed a blood test tool that could predict the likelihood of developing disorders like Alzheimer’s and how long someone may have left to live.
- Researchers examined the organ health of 45,000 participants aged 40 to 70, finding that some had organs more than five years younger or older than their actual age.
- The tool could be made available in the next two to three years, but a Long Island expert said the test should be replicated with other groups first.
“While most people’s estimated organ ages, also called biological age, were very close to their actual age, some had organs more than ~5 years younger or older — what we called extreme agers,” he said.
The team also found associations between extremely aged organs and 15 disorders, including Alzheimer’s and Parkinson’s diseases, heart failure and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.
Wyss-Coray hopes to make the tool developed during the study available in the next two to three years. The technology has already been licensed.
Chabidou Sampain, a nurse practitioner at Stony Brook Medicine, said she’s witnessed the importance of the brain while working with geriatric patients and treating and diagnosing different forms of dementia and other brain disorders. Both Sampain and Wyss-Coray reported better health outcomes in those who are cognitively active compared to those who are not, regardless of age.
“Reading, socializing and doing other brain activities, like Sudoku, is very important and it slows down the progression of cognitive decline. Your brain is a powerhouse. If you don’t feed it properly, it leads to destruction across the board,” said Sampain.
Sampain said the study also could yield information that may help prevent further disease.
“That’s the way health care should be. Not just day to day medication for someone who’s sick but rather taking a deeper look at what’s truly happening,” said Sampain.
An exciting starting point
Dr. Thomas Wisniewski, director of cognitive neurology for NYU Langone’s Department of Neurology, said the study was well-done and is an exciting starting point for the future of health care.
“This could help deliver better health care by telling people what appropriate lifestyle changes they can make to change the trajectory of their lives,” said Wisniewski.
However, he also noted that this study needs to be replicated with additional groups before it’s ready for routine use to account for the wide range of reasons someone might develop a medical condition. For example, African American and Hispanic people have higher Alzheimer and other dementia rates than white Americans, the Alzheimer’s Association reported in 2020.
Wyss-Coray said the group tried to consider these factors, but the biomedical database used for the study, the UK Biobank, isn’t very diverse. However, he was firm in the reliability of his study.
“We can calculate what someone’s risk is with very high statistical significance, but risk, of course, is never certainty … Still, we have very high confidence in these numbers after looking at almost 45,000 people,” said Wyss-Coray.
Sampain said this technology would particular useful on Long Island, where the aging population is growing and Alzheimer’s rates are higher. She said patients frequently inquire about mortality and the likelihood of developing dementia.
Wyss-Coray said that the first tests would be limited to those who could afford to pay for it out-of-pocket due to the cost of the technology. He estimated the price would be similar to that of other genetic tests like 23andMe, which ranges from $99 to $499.
The first rollout of the tool will be integral to validating the test and lowering the price, Wyss-Coray said.
Sampain said raising awareness of these findings with local libraries where social workers are stationed, skilled nursing facilities and community resource centers can help ensure those from parts of Long Island with limited resources also benefit from this early detection tool if made available.
“Hopefully, health insurance companies will see the benefit of giving people access to these tests to help them prevent disease rather than waiting until they already have one and need to treat it … We’d be able to get people treatments much earlier and also incentivize them to care for their bodies now,” he said.