Americans are expected to consume 70 trillion fewer calories in the next six years thanks to the rise of weight loss drugs like Ozempic and Wegovy.
By the end of 2030, the average US adult is expected to eat 100 to 800 fewer calories per year thanks to the drugs’ hunger-busting effects.
The report, compiled by Impact Analytics, found this will result in a cumulative annual reduction of approximately 10 trillion to 68 trillion calories by 2030.
The research found that, since the drugs were approved for weight loss in 2021, sales of fresh produce in the US has spiked while junk food purchases are down.
Shares of Jell-O maker Kraft Heinz, Pringles maker Kellanova, and soda giant PepsiCo, which owns Frito-Lay, all hit record lows last year in a sign of the so-called ‘Ozempic effect.’
An estimated six percent of American adults – around 18 million – currently take a medication that mimics that hormone that tells the brain you’re full. Those drugs include Ozempic, Wegovy, Zepbound, and Mounjaro
An estimated 12 percent of American adults have tried one of these medications since their inception, and around six percent currently take them, around 18 million.
With the activated hormones that signal fullness, people on the drugs take in far less food than they would without them, leading to smaller portion sizes and less snacking.
The Impact Analytics report found in 2024, the average calorie intake is projected to be around 3,600 calories per person per day.
The organization believes this number could decrease to 2,800 calories by 2030, which would be the lowest since the 1960s.
According to the report, sales for fresh produce is up, with a 12.4 percent increase in fresh fruit sales and a 9.2 percent increase in vegetables since 2021.
The investment bank Morgan Stanley predicted the number of people drinking sodas and alcohol and eating salty snacks will fall four percent by 2035, forcing manufacturers to either reformulate or risk being squeezed out of the market.
Impact Analytics CEO Prashant Agrawal told USA TODAY: ‘We’re moving from the sugary foods, processed foods to more healthy foods.
‘GLP is a cause of it. There’s also the fact that people are more worried about ultra-processed foods.’
The report’s authors said: ‘As more people adopt healthier eating habits and use GLP-1 drugs, demand for high-calorie, processed foods is expected to decrease significantly by 2030.
‘Sugary snacks, carbonated soft drinks, fast food, frozen meals, Consumer Behavior: and other high-calorie, low-nutrition products are likely to see declining sales.’
By 2030, there could be a significant reduction in calorie intake across the entire adult population thanks to the explosive popularity of weight loss medications
A survey conducted by Morgan Stanley found 73 percent of people ate less confectionary foods, which includes sugary candy, chocolate and some baked goods
Major players in the fast food industry, such as McDonald’s, Burger King and Yum Brands, which owns KFC and Taco Bell, could see falling demand
Last year, the CEO of global snacking company Kellanova, which owns brands like Cheez-It, Pringles, and Rice Krispies Treats, told Bloomberg: ‘Like everything that potentially impacts our business, we’ll look at it, study it, and, if necessary, mitigate.’
One day later, investment firm Barclays predicted the impact that the advent of the drugs would have on companies including Pepsi Co., which makes sodas, Cheetos and Doritos, McDonald’s Corp., and Altria Group Inc., the cigarette maker.
The firm suggested these companies buy insurance to protect themselves against potential financial losses, with strategists saying: ‘The impacts of GLP-1s potentially introduce disruption into a number of industries.’