By David M. Greenwald
Executive Editor
Dan Walter’s recent column on the state housing trouble (Housing Gap Grows During Squabbles) could just as easily been referring to local housing conditions as well.
He points out that “between 2010 and 2020, California’s population grew by 6.1% while its housing supply rose by just 4.7%, increasing the already wide gap.” Moreover, “since 2020 the state has fallen about 50% short of the 180,000 new units the state says are needed each year.”
Walters notes that when he ran for Governor, Gavin Newsom pledged, if elected, “I will lead the effort to develop the 3.5 million new housing units we need by 2025 because our solutions must be as bold as the problem is big.”
While Walters acknowledges, “Newsom may have been been much more active than other recent governors on promoting housing construction, but what he and the Legislature have done still has not made a measurable dent in California’s housing shortage.”
This is the situation we see ourselves in locally in Davis as well.
Recent data published by the city shows that over the last 16 years, the city of Davis has added just over 700 units of single-family housing.
The state has ramped up its efforts to compel local communities to comply with state imposed mandates. It took the city of Davis three tries and several years to get its housing element certified by the state.
But in doing so, the city avoided the contentious battles over peripheral housing. Or shall we say the city punted those concerns down the road—because, as the Vanguard has repeatedly reported, they are still coming.
The local squabbles are coming sooner rather than later.
First, there will be the start of the General Plan Update. The city is optimistically believing that can be completed within two to three years, but we have no idea what Pandora’s box actually looks like until we start to see the battles over the details.
Second, it remains to be seen whether the council will put an amendment to Measure J on the ballot for November. If they do, that figures to be a major battle within the city of Davis.
Measure J was first passed in 2000—a relatively narrow victory. Since then in 2010 and 2020, the measure has been overwhelmingly supported and renewed.
But in the 25 years since Measure J was passed, just two projects have been approved and neither of them have been built. Will voters be willing to amend the ordinance to allow for more realistic exemptions and ease the way for the city to comply with state housing laws?
At the same time, we are gearing up for two new Measure J projects—it appears one in 2025 and one in 2026.
Originally there were five proposals—one, it appears, will avoid a Measure J vote. Two have dropped off. That leaves just Village Farms and Shriners.
As noted this week, at present the two projects would account for 3000 units of overall housing, but only 540 units of affordable housing.
While we do not know exactly what the state RHNA numbers will for the next cycle, it seems likely at least that the two projects are not going to be able to provide enough affordable housing without some major help from the community.
Moreover, slow growth advocates are gearing up to fight some of these proposals.
That is likely to be another battle to watch1if slow growth advocates defeat either or both, slim becomes none and there will be no way that the city can meet its next round of RHNA needs.
So then what?
I still believe that the most likely outcome will be a challenge to Measure J by the AG’s office and/or HCD some time in 2025 if the city fails to adopt an amended Measure J and if the voters vote down one or both of the projects.
Personally, I believe that Measure J as currently written is not workable. That it needs to be amended to allow the city the ability to build the housing that it needs.
I also believe that local voters are not going to be willing to vote to repeal Measure J and might not even be willing to amend it—although we shall perhaps see.
That leaves the state as the most likely avenue and, based on my read of the current situation, I believe that is coming and would be successful.
So for those community members that support Measure J, at least in concept, that puts them on the clock to figure out a way to amend Measure J or the state will likely come in and take it out completely.
In the meantime, while all these battles loom, the city is not addressing its critical housing needs. The next 12 months or so will tell the tale. I don’t think the community really senses yet what is at stake.