|A pedestrian walks past the smoke and haze shrouded New York Stock Exchange building in New York City Wednesday, June 7. AP-Yonhap|
Stocks rose just enough for Wall Street to barrel into a new bull market Thursday as the SP 500 keeps rallying off its low from last autumn.
The index rose 0.6 percent to carry it 20 percent above a bottom hit in October. That means Wall Street’s main measure of health has climbed out of a painful bear market, which saw it drop 25.4 percent over roughly nine months.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 168 points, or 0.5 percent, Thursday. The Nasdaq composite, meanwhile, led the way with a 1 percent rise. That’s been the norm so far this bull market, as chip maker Nvidia and a handful of other big tech stocks have been responsible for the lion’s share of Wall Street’s gains.
Declaring the end of a bear market may seem arbitrary, but it offers a useful marker for investors. It also provides a reminder that investors able to hold on through downturns have nearly always made back all their losses in SP 500 index funds eventually.
Even though it was driven by so many superlatives ― the worst inflation in generations and the fastest hikes to interest rates in decades, for example― this most recent bear market lasted only about nine months. It stretched from Jan. 3, 2022, when the SP 500 set a record, until Oct. 12, when it hit bottom. That’s shorter than the typical bear market, and it also resulted in a shallower loss than average.
“In hindsight, it might not look that bad, but it certainly feels bad in the moment,” said Brent Schutte, chief investment officer at Northwestern Mutual.
What made last year even more painful for investors is that both stocks and bonds lost money, he said, something that hasn’t happened in decades.
Much of this bull market’s gains have been because the economy has refused to fall into a recession despite repeated predictions for one. It’s withstood the highest interest rates since 2007, three high-profile collapses for U.S. banks, another threat by the U.S. government of an economy-shaking default on its debt and a series of other challenges.
“Bottom line, the economy has been very resilient,” said Anthony Saglimbene, chief markets strategist at Ameriprise Financial.
“So much negativity was built into the market,” he said. “While it’s too early to know this for sure, stocks look like they’re doing what they normally do when all the negativity has been discounted into the stock market: They start moving higher in anticipation of better days ahead.”
Not only has the economy avoided a recession because of a remarkably solid job market and spending by consumers, hopes are also rising that the Fed may soon stop hiking interest rates as inflation has come down from its peak last summer.
High rates work to undercut inflation by slowing the entire economy and dragging on prices for stocks and other investments.
|In this file photo, a GameStop sign is displayed above a store in Urbandale, Iowa, on Jan. 28, 2021. Shares of GameStop are falling before the market open on Thursday, June 8, as the video game company has terminated CEO Matthew Furlong and named Ryan Cohen as its executive chairman. AP-Yonhap|
The broad expectation among traders is that the Fed will hold rates steady next week, which would mark the first meeting where it hasn’t raised rates in more than a year. While it may hike rates one more time in July, the hope on Wall Street is that it won’t go beyond that. Inflation has been coming down from its peak last summer.
But many challenges still remain for the stock market.
Chief among them is that no one can be sure about when Fed will be done hiking rates. Even if inflation has been coming down, it’s remained stubbornly above the Fed’s comfort level and is still causing pain for all kinds of households, particularly ones with lower incomes.
That has some investors continuing to prepare for a coming recession, even if they keep pushing out predictions for when it will arrive by a few months.
“It’s been an odd and uneven recovery” coming out of the recession caused the COVID pandemic, Northwestern Mutual’s Schutte said. “It’s been an odd and even push into recession.”
Another warning sign for skeptics is how much of the SP 500’s gains have been concentrated this year within just a handful of stocks.
Hopes for a pause by the Fed have helped big, high-growth stocks in particular. Investors see them benefiting the most from easier interest rates because that’s what’s happened in the past.
Add on top of that euphoria around artificial intelligence fanned by last month’s tremendous sales forecast by Nvidia, and just seven stocks have been responsible for the majority of the SP 500’s gain this year.
Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft and other Big Tech giants have so much influence on the SP 500 because they’re the biggest, and the index gives more weight to stocks based on their size. Nearly half the stocks in the SP 500, meanwhile, are down for the year so far.
Thursday’s gains for the SP 500 offered a good example. It rose largely because of Big Tech, which gained as expectations built for the Fed to take a pause on rates next week.
That was because a report showed the highest number of U.S. workers applied for unemployment benefits last week since October 2021. It helped push against pressure that may have built for tougher policy after central banks in Canada and Australia hiked their own rates recently.
But the SP 500 was nearly split between winners and losers. Smaller stocks in the Russell 2000 index, meanwhile, slipped 0.4 percent.
The arrival of a bull market also doesn’t mean the stock market has made it back to its prior heights. Because of math, a 25 percent drop for the SP 500 requires a 33 percent rally to follow in order to just get back to even.
GameStop was one of Wall Street’s bigger movers Thursday, falling 17.9 percent after ousting its CEO who was brought in to turn around the struggling video game retailer. The company, whose stock became a sensation in 2021 during the meme-stock craze, also reported weaker revenue for the latest quarter than expected.
Adobe rose 5 percent for one of the biggest gains in the SP 500 after it announced a new artificial-intelligence offering for businesses. It joined the AI frenzy that supporters say will be the next revolution to remake the economy. Critics say it’s inflating the next bubble.
All told, the SP 500 rose 26.41 points to 4,293.93. The Dow gained 168.59 to 33,833.61, and the Nasdaq rose 133.63 to 13,238.52.
After the unemployment data hit the market, Treasury yields gave up gains from earlier in the morning. The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell to 3.71 percent from 3.78 percent late Wednesday. It helps set rates for mortgages and other important loans.
The two-year yield, which moves more on expectations for the Fed, fell to 4.51 percent from 4.55 percent. (AP)